Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Data

The average figure of everyday murders per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh administrative statistics. However, security specialists have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate improved national safety.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these past months is extremely important,” the President stated, explaining that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for gauging the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it might mask days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst concluded.